Journal de IchiMohu

[IchiMohu]

Short position hit TP with +43pips, Long activated .. watching how it gonna react from here.

Updating this trading, since I'm holding it from last week.

EURUSD

On 1W TF, trading inside the cloud above weekly KS & Supp @ 1.107 with the price make HH & HL, price trading @ the middle ranges of current wave range and forming Cup and handle pattern targeting 1.1460 vs Double top targeting 1.094.
- So 1W shows possibility of continuation of the bullish wave, targeting @ 1.1224 and possibly more.

On 1D TF, interestingly price rejected from pivotal point 1.1168 which rejected the price multiple times previously, price now @ a triple supp area 1.106/1.104/1.102, the cloud point for possibility of break for higher target, with the next major Resis @ 1.111/1.117/1.122 (like 1W TF), Important to keep in mind that 2 weeks ago M pattern started to form and its targeting 1.093 (weekly double top TP!).
- So 1D might have a breaking and continuation of the bullish wave targeting 1.122 areas, or a minor bullish wave till 1.111 and from there it will change its direction targeting 1.093.

On the 4H TF, price trading outside the cloud with bearish setup after it break an uptrend, pivotal point formed @ 1.1085/ 1.104/1.102 (Daily areas!), it has a near Supp @ 1.1060
- So on 4H it has a possibility of bullish wave targeting a retest to 1.112 and from there it might, 1) Continuation of the down trend targeting 1.104/1.102/1.097, 2) breaking out of the Resis confirms this is was just a correction and repositioning move, and continuation of the bullish wave from last week targeting 1.114/1.118/1.125.

On the 1H TF, strong bearish setup, multiple Supp @ 1.106/1.105/1.104, price drooped due to breaking to the 1H trading range 1.1109.


Possible trades:
- Closing my current long position @ entry with market opening.
- [Risky] Start with Short @ 1.1081, targeting 1.1054/1.1040, SL 1.1098.
- Long position @ 1.1054, TP 1.116/1.122, SL below 1.1005.

Short Hit SL -30 pips, Still at good place for a short, I would sell again targeting 1.1055 with SL above 1.1165.

Fichiers joints

[IchiMohu]

GBPUSD

"It's worth mentioning that GBP pairs has never treated me well, so please trade it with caution!"

On 1W TF, Price started to trade above the cloud with bullish setup, after the price got rejected from the pivotal point @ 1.3515, road filled with Resis, yet the nearest Supp @ 1.2819 next to the 1W KS, there's possible formation of double bottom pattern targeting 1.43 area .. if that the case there would be a positioning movement targeting 1.28/1.25!

- So 1W, a bearish repositioning movement targeting 1.282/1.274, followed by bullish continuation till 1.43.

On 1D TF, bullish setup with correction signs, price broke an uptrend @1.307 and heading to the other @ 1.285 after a possible minor bullish wave (happening now), 1.28/1.27 area filled with Supp and pivotal points!
- So 1D pointing to bearish correction and confirms the possibility of the repositioning movement on the 1W TF, Resis @ 1.307 & 1.297.

On the 4H TF, bearish setup with early consolidation after it formed LH & LL, price @ the cloud border between 2 pivotal points @ 1.3020/1.2994, it have both possibility of 1) closing above 1.302 tageting 1.309/1.312 or 2) rejected from 1.302 and continue till 1D and 1W targets.

On the 1H TF, price trading inside the cloud and it has a bullish momentum, possibly it targets the next Resis @ 1.3018 or double Resis @ 1.307 & 1.308 ( same as 1D & 4H), next pivotal point @ 1.3034.


Possible trades
I'm expecting a short term bullish wave back to 1.307, followed by the repositioning bearish wave 1.28/1.25, to get to the long term longs for possible 1.43!
- Start with long @ 1.3000 area, TP 1.3035/1.307, SL below 1.2945
- Short order @ 1.308, TP 1.288/1.280, SL above 1.3210

Long hit TP +70 pips, waiting short to be activated.

Fichiers joints

[IchiMohu]

GBPAUD
"It's worth mentioning that GBP pairs has never treated me well, so please trade it with caution!"

On 1W TF, Price started to trade above the cloud with bullish setup, after the price got rejected from the Resis @ 1.9216, double Supp @ 1.862/1.854, price below KS suggesting that this is a corrective movement.

On 1D TF, price trading inside the cloud between 2 pivotal points @ 1.877/1.864, cloud still bullish, no true LH yet, 1D shows both possibility ping pong in the cloud range 1.89/1.85!

On the 4H TF, bearish setup with early consolidation after it formed LH & LL, price @ the cloud border KS about to cross TS, if there's a correction road is open till 1.880/1.886/1.902.

On the 1H TF, price trading inside the cloud and it has a bullish momentum, possibility it targets the SSB and moving toward 1.880/ 1.884/1.887

Possible trades
- [Risky] Long @ 1.8745, TP 1.8808/1.8848/1.9014, SL below 1.8691

Hit SL -54 pips, price went back & setup still holding
taking the same trade again Long @ 1.8745, TP 1.8808/1.8848/1.9014, SL below 1.8691

Fichiers joints

[IchiMohu]

AUDCAD

On W1, price trading inside the cloud with CS lagging behind & out after it got rejected from pivotal point @ 0.8928, price @ 1W downtrend with KS below the cloud, 1W point for a possibility of corrective move towards 0.922/0.930, next Resis @ 0.9131 with another downtrend!

On 1D, full bullish setup with HH & HL, price trading above Supp @ 0.9088, the weak H&Ss pattern targeting 0.924, but price away from the 2nd shoulder low!

On 4H, bullish setup with price consolidation, KS & TS about to cross, pivotal point @ 0.9057, no Supp on the way.

On 1H, bullish setup with price consolidation @ the cloud upper border, price trading between 2 uptrends & cloud span, 2 pivotal points @ 0.9080/0.9070, SSB and pivotal point @ 0.9050.

Possible trades:
- Start with short term Selling order @ 0.9107, TP 0.9080/0.9070/0.9050, SL above 0.9133.
- Long order @ 0.9050, TP 0.910/0.9135/0.917/0.922, SL below 0.8988.

Moving SL above 0.9142, same targets.

[IchiMohu]

NZDUSD

On 1W TF, strong bullish movement, price just broke outside the cloud while CS lagging behind and in, price @ Resis level 0.6695, no near by levels.

On 1D TF, strong bullish setup as well, price @ pivotal point 0.6707, another pivotal points @ 0.6628, there's a room for corrective bearish movement, no reversal signs yet.

On the 4H & 1H TFs, strong bullish setup price reached 1H Resis @ 0.6706, cloud shows some weakness but no reversal signs yet.


Possible trades
Short @ current price 0.6707, TP 0.6675/0.663/0.6512 SL above 0.6753.
better price for shorting would be 0.6581.

Fichiers joints

[IchiMohu]

Sorry it seems I forgot to update this trade, as I just posted in my personal journal and not here.
Scalping long gave +13pips, and short position got activated from 121.66, so far +41pips and still running.

Updating EURJPY from last week

On 1W TF, Price is trading inside the cloud with bearish momentum, pivotal point @ 121.70/121.50 reject the price, signs of continuation of the corrective bearish wave still strong, pointing to retest to the 1W downtrend @124.5 and possibly 125 on the long run.

On 1D TF, strong bullish setup with HH & HL, price rejected form 122.61 next supp @ 120.33, confirming that the price range between @ 122/116,there's a room for a bearish correction a possibly retesting the uptrend & supp @ 120.33.

On the 4H TF, bearish setup after the price broke the cloud, Supp @ 121.3/120,3 (Daily Supp!), there's a possible continuation of bearish wave till 120.30.

On the 1H TF, price just broke out of the cloud, closed below pivotal point @ 121.3 (1D&4H!) with LH & LL, next target 120.88/120.6.


Possible trades
- Holding my short with SL @ entry for 120.30.
- If small TFs showed signs of minor reversal, I might Long scalping @ 121.22, TP 121.48.
- Short @ 121.48, targeting 120.30, SL above 121.91.

Long hit TP +26 pips, Short activated @ 121.48 holding for my target.

Short hit SL -43 pips, nothing active with EURJPY for now.

[IchiMohu]

That was a rough 3 days, despite knowing that these 3 days is really bad for trading
I wanted to challenge myself and see If my method would stand against this randomness.

I like to do a review for my week trades, looking for what I miss, why a trade went wrong or did good.
I think there's a great value of doing this, and I recommend to start doing it.

I will try to post this week results, and some important thing I missed with some of my last trades.

[IchiMohu]

Here is the 2nd weeks (3 Days) results, although it was only 3 days
yet it was filled with actions, SL hunting and mistakes

PS: 1st table for trades that was held from the week before, the result which was included in last week results was excluded here
2nd table for the new trade in this week

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[IchiMohu]

I believe risk management is the most important step a trader most establish prior to star a trade
regardless of your analysis, your strategy or even you capital size.

Last week I had a really bad week, although experts stopped and recommend to stop trading at the end of the year, I decided to trade on purpose to test if my strategy and RMP would stand against market randomness.
I had 4 trades hit SL with 3 trades running with -VE result vs 2 trades hit TP and 2 running with +VE result.
yet the outcome is +VE > +0.31%!

How this is done? Risk management plan!

My Risk Management Plan is simple and it consist of bunch of rules that I would never break (hopefully!)
- No trade without SL (even though I believe in SL hunt).
- No trade has less 1:1 P/L ratio ( set according the strategy).
- Risk per trade is ranging between 0.5% - 1.5%, including all the positions on that specific pair.
- Risk is calculated according to the current account balance, not the equity.
- I'm allowed to move my SL, if the trade is promising, setup is still holding and the Max risk allows that (not more than 1.5%).
- Once I have more than 5% risk on open positions, my Max risk would be 1% per trade on new ones.
- Once I have more than 10% risk on open positions my Max risk would be 0.5% on the new ones.
- Max risk per trade with specific currency goes down to 1% in case I have more than 3% on open positions with that same currency.
- In case the trade was, a swing, SL more than 45 pips, supported by large TFs or it has a solid setup, I would push it toward the 1.5% risk.
- In case the trade was, a Scalp, SL less than 45 pips, not supported by large TFs or it has a questionable setup, I would push it toward the 0.5% risk.
- I move SL entry point once there's, Supp/Resis formed to the level prior to the entry point or the trade moved more than 50% of the initial TP.

if you have any, feel free to share.

[IchiMohu]

USDJPY

On 1W TF, Price is trading outside the cloud while CS lagging inside, made a new after breading the downtrend with HH and weak bullish cloud with the, might have correction targeting the previous Supp @ 108.8.

On 1D TF, bullish setup rejected from pivotal point @ 109.60 and broke below the daily uptrend, double top pattern under development, previous Supp @ 108.10/106.90.

On the 4H TF, bullish setup consolidating at the same rejection level, possible double top pattern targeting 108.70, Supp @ 109.31/ 109.0, pivotal point @ 109.83.

On the 1H TF, bullish with possible reversal after started to trade inside the cloud, next level as 4H TF @ 109.3/109.0.


Possible trades
Short @ current price 109.48, TP @ 109.30/109.08, SL above 109.65.

Hit 2nd TP with +40pips, I converted this trade to a swing last week
so I'm holding it for more, mentoring according to 1D & 4H TFs, SL on entry.

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